Unpacking the Risks of Doing Business in India
- Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning
- by Namit Agarwal
- 17 Jan, 2017
The World Economic Forum recently published its annual Global Risks Report for 2017. This report is based on a global perception survey covering various age groups, countries and sectors such as business, academia, civil society and government. This report highlights risks of highest concern for doing business. A quick analysis of the 2017 risks for doing business shows that while the top global risks have largely remained stable there have been some significant changes in the context of India. Here’s what I observed.
Catching up with global risk perception
Results of the perception survey for India are more aligned with the global perception unlike previous year. Three risks – profound social instability, failure of national governance and unemployment or underemployment have seen the most significant change.
Profound social instability is associated with prominent social movements or protests that disrupt political or social stability, negatively impacting populations and economic activity. In 2016 this risk did not even make it to the top 25 in the India survey. It has come a long way to rank 2nd in 2017. Its global rank has remained unchanged at 5.
Failure of national governance is a risk associated with the inability to govern a nation of geopolitical importance as a result of weak rule of law, corruption or political deadlock. This has jumped to the 6th position from 24th in 2016. Its global rank has remained unchanged at 4.
Unemployment and underemployment is associated with sustained high level of unemployment or underutilization of the productive capacity of the employed population. This was at rank 18 in 2016 and has moved to rank 2nd tying with profound social instability. It continues to remain the top most global risk for business. What’s surprising is the rate of change in perception for India level risks while the same at a global level did not change at all. In my earlier post on the 2016 report perturbed by this anomaly I had written that “either Indian businesses feel they are better prepared to mitigate these risks as compared to their global counterparts, or they feel that the Indian economy is immune to these risks.” I am happy that my assumptions stand corrected now!
What went down?
Two risks which are now perceived to be much lower in the Indian context are in striking contrast with global perception. Failure of critical infrastructure which is associated with the failure to adequately invest in, upgrade and/or secure infrastructure networks (e.g. energy, transportation and communications), leading to pressure or a breakdown with system-wide implications. While globally this continues to stay at 8th position in India it has dropped from 6th place to 20th. Building India’s critical infrastructure is one of the top priorities for the government I feel it’s still an unrealised dream. India’s infrastructure deficit is costing upto 5% of the GDP and in my view continues to be a higher order risk. Fiscal crises which is associated with excessive debt burdens that generate sovereign debt crises and/or liquidity crises. While globally it is stable at 3rd position it has dropped from 2nd to 16th position in India. India’s total fiscal deficit is among the highest in G20 countries. RBI Governor recently made a public statement urging the government for better managing this risk. I am yet to find a very strong evidence in support of this drastic change in perception.
Trends to watch out for
The report maps each risk with a set of trends that are inter-connected to it. Looking at the trends interconnected with the top India level risks the following common trends stand out. None of the trends look surprising or odd except the one on ageing population given India’s young median age.
- Rising income and wealth disparity – This trend is connected most prominently to social instability and unemployment risks. Credit Suisse’s Global Wealth Report 2016 put India as the second most unequal country in the world. In India, the top 1% grew its share of the country’s wealth from almost 37% in 2000 to 53% in 2016. The fact that the top 2 perceived risks for Indian businesses are prominently linked to the alarming levels of inequality in India this is the most critical trend for Indian businesses to watch out for.
- Growing middle class in emerging economies – India’s middle-class population has doubled in size to 600 million between 2004 and 2012. India’s middle class population is poised to expand significantly and could potentially add over 1 billion people to the global middle class between now and 2039. Two most prominent risks interconnected with this trend are – failure of urban planning and unemployment. This poses a real threat in a scenario where fewer organised sector jobs are being created to come to speed with the growing demand from growing educated middle-class working age population.
- Increasing national sentiment – This is a trend linked prominently with the risk of profound social instability and unemployment or underemployment among others. India is experiencing a surge in the nationalistic sentiment among its people. While the political merits and demerits of a nationalistic surge have been debated to death its impact on business risks is new.
- Rising urbanisation – This trend is interconnected with the risks of failure of urban planning, profound social instability, unemployment or underemployment, failure of critical infrastructure and water crises. World Bank estimates that India’s urban populaton will double to 857 million by 2050. This translates to building over 7.5 billion sq. ft of residential and commercial space every year for the next 15 years. The biggest challenge besides these audacious numbers is that this rapid urbanisation continues to promote spatial inequalities with the marginalised populations concentrated mostly within unauthorised and poor neighbourhoods.
Namit Agarwal, Lead Specialist - Private Sector Engagement, Oxfam India
Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning
Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning at Oxfam India plays essential function of gathering evidence to measure the degree to which our interventions bring sustainable changes in people's lives
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Lipstick Under My Burkha Official Trailer - Winner of Oxfam's Best Film on Gender Equality Award
Sep 27, 2019 | Ravi
Sourcing Life
Oct 7, 2019 | Anisha
MEETING TOILET TARGETS
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Disaster Changed Her Life
Oct 24, 2019 | Anisha
#HaqBantaHai Campaign on Access to Free Medicine: Bihar
Sep 10, 2019 | Anisha
Be The New Norm
Oct 7, 2019 | Ravi
Oxfam India’s Recommendations for National Policy for Women
Sep 27, 2019 | Ravi
The Greatest Earning: EDUCATION
Dec 5, 2019 | Anisha
Women Farmers or Labourers?
Oct 24, 2019 | Avantika
Farewell Dirty Water
Jan 9, 2020 | Avantika
Clean Water Can Save Lives
Oct 24, 2019 | Avantika
Making men an ally on women's rights
Oct 24, 2019 | Avantika
'Initially the men opposed. They thought we women were being disruptive.'
Oct 1, 2019 | Avantika
Tax havens resist reforms one year on from Panama Papers exposé
Oct 1, 2019 | Avantika
इख़्तियार
Oct 24, 2019 | Avantika
Lessons from the Grassroots
Sep 10, 2019 | Avantika
This is What Child Marriage Looks Like
Nov 18, 2019 | Avantika
Oxfam India Held Youth Festivals In Lucknow And Raipur
Sep 9, 2019 | Avantika
Oxfam at the North-East Disaster Risk Reduction Conclave 2017
Sep 9, 2019 | Avantika
Finding Solutions to Early and Forced Marriage
Sep 27, 2019 | Avantika
Silence Has No Honour
Sep 27, 2019 | Avantika
Solidarity Is Our Weapon- The International Women’s Strike
Oct 24, 2019 | Avantika
4 reasons why Oxfam supports the International Women’s Strike on the 8th March
Oct 24, 2019 | Avantika
Union Budget 2017-18: Neglected Social Sector
Sep 10, 2019 | Avantika
Putting Data at the Heart of Business Responsibility
May 13, 2019 | Avantika
Mainstreaming DRR in Local Development Plans to Reduce Aid Dependency
Oct 1, 2019 | Avantika
Union Budget 2017-18: A Look at the Health Sector
Apr 5, 2019 | Avantika
खेल - जेण्डर आधारित असमानताओं को उजागर करने को एक सषक्त माध्यम
Apr 5, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Why Brazil should not take a U-turn on its health system
Oct 7, 2019 | Avantika
Your questions answered: Oxfam’s Inequality report
Oct 1, 2019 | Avantika
We Never Learn
Sep 27, 2019 | Ravi
Promote men’s involvement for changing social norms
Oct 24, 2019 | Avantika
Ten years of the Forest Rights Act: Opportunity lost?
Oct 1, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Meet the Bravehearts Standing Up Against Domestic Violence
May 27, 2020 | oxfamadmin
Addressing Violence Against Women and Girls the SAARC Way: Combat Human Trafficking
Sep 10, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Oxfam India’s journey from programme to campaign
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
सामाजिक मान्यताओं को चुनौती देता संगठन
Dec 5, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Changing The World – One Couple At A Time
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
A Lesson on Education from Uttar Pradesh
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Fair Sharing of Mining Revenue for the Tribals
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
An Open Letter to Chhotu, Munna and Bachcha
Jun 12, 2020 | oxfamadmin
Educating the Educators
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
10 Years of Domestic Violence Act: The Way Ahead
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Oxfam Best Film on Gender Equality Award Gets Grand Reception
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Wrestling Social Norms Out
Oct 3, 2019 | oxfamadmin
The Toilet Conundrum
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Inequality in India: what's the real story?
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Making surface water safe for drinking
Oct 1, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Quality Education- The unfinished agenda of RTE Act
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Tale of Two Women
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Prioritising the Health of our Children
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Violence in women’s own backyard
Sep 9, 2019 | oxfamadmin
We failed yet again
Sep 10, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Providing access to iron-free drinking water
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Her Series - Tale of Buguru Chitamma: How a cooperative transformed fisher women into leaders
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Why the CAF bill conflicts with the Forest Rights Act?
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Renew to Live Anew
Sep 9, 2019 | oxfamadmin
What do we want: Health as a ‘Right’ or just an ‘Assurance’
Nov 18, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Oxfam International signs historic deal to move to Nairobi, Kenya
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Why is passing the Women’s Reservation Bill urgent?
Sep 19, 2023 | oxfamadmin
BREXIT & What It Means for Humanitarian Aid
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Rahul Bose: Films should be gender sensitive
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Portrait of a Teacher: Successful introduction of multi-lingual education for Odisha’s tribal communities
Nov 6, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Tax dodging is a crime against developing countries
Sep 10, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Signs of social risks impacting Indian businesses
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Tikamgarh revisited, what’s happened to the amazing fishing communities I visited in 2006?
Jan 9, 2020 | oxfamadmin
Where school means freedom
Sep 10, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Yes, Prime Minister
Oct 30, 2019 | oxfamadmin
India’s National Budget 2016-17: Missed Opportunity to Address Inequality?
Oct 1, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Free The Night
Sep 9, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Woman, Open Your Eyes…
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
From Darbhanga to Davos: Access to Affordable Medicine Still Remains a Key Question
Dec 16, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Hoping for a Second Chance: Punita Devi
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Activating Youth in Lucknow to Promote Girls’ Education
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Change is Coming: Rani Bitti’s Story
Sep 10, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Rachna’s Fight for Justice
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
3 Key Observations from #WEF2016 that Indian Businesses Must Take Note Of
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Here’s Why States Need to Provide Free Basic Medicines
Nov 18, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Update: Oxfam to Provide Shelter to 300 Households Hit by The Manipur Earthquake
Apr 5, 2019 | oxfamadmin
In El Salvador, a struggle to survive El Niño
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Bihar designs a 15-year roadmap to reduce risk of disaster
Feb 20, 2020 | ursila
Violence as an Effective Mode of “Indian” Communication
Apr 5, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Because it’s 2015!
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Let’s welcome a new dawn, minus domestic violence
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Data and Discrimination: Women’s Ownership of Assets in India
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
“No Woman, No Cry!”
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Pushing, pulling and the power of people: new horizons for corporate responsibility?
Jan 9, 2020 | oxfamadmin
Yes bank - say to inclusive and social banking and inclusive business model
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Creating shared value through inclusive business
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
TATA consultancy services – empowering farmers with mobile technology
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
What the CSR numbers don’t tell
Oct 1, 2019 | oxfamadmin
6 important things companies need to do to be inclusive
Nov 21, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Why businesses need to invest in creating a productive population for a sustainable future
Sep 10, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Jaipur rugs – weaving the lives of the poor into the global markets. an inclusive business model.
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
The next 15 years: highlighting the role of the private sector in development
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Emphasizing a human rights-based approach to inclusiveness in business
Oct 30, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Privatising Forests: A Bad Idea
Oct 30, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Adoption of Agenda 2030: 17 SDGs for 15 years
Nov 15, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Five questions about the #GlobalGoals you were too embarrassed to ask
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Last mile smile
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Social responsibility of companies should not stop at 2%
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
In ‘campaign mode’, states flout FRA rules
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
“I will not leave my forest. I will keep my jungle”
Oct 1, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Healthcare for all in India: When, How, and Why RSBY?
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Where is the nutrition? Ask pregnant women in a village of Bihar
Jan 9, 2020 | oxfamadmin
Learning to read at schools, but where are the textbooks?
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Progressive tax norms must underlie financing of the Sustainable Development Goals
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Teachers needed! Government schools are falling behind due to lack of funds
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Protect and expand India’s public healthcare system: The inequality imperative
Dec 16, 2019 | oxfamadmin
“On My Second Day At School, A Kid Asked Me What Caste I Was”
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
India’s missing girls: A tale of healthcare neglect faced by girls
Sep 9, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Should we only give attention to women’s health on International day of action?
Nov 18, 2019 | oxfamadmin
No respite for 72-year-old Sitaram, a month after #NepalEarthquake
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
One month on, education of children still jolted by Nepal earthquake
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
New worry for Nepal; landslides, floods may block relief work
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Monsoon preview in Kathmandu blows away shelters in relief camp
Oct 1, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Last mile distribution of relief supplies is biggest challenge in Nepal: Indian ambassador
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
When Delhi’s Streets Buzzed with ‘Haq Banta Hai’
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Lack of water, toilets making things worse for women in Nepal
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Oxfam India gets government approval to respond to #NepalEarthquake in 28 hours
Apr 5, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Desperation creeping in, people in Nepal wait for aid
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
#OxfaminNepal: “More than 60,000 litres of water has been provided till now”
Oct 7, 2019 | Avantika
Political (and some other) priorities in Nepal as of 28 April 2015
Oct 30, 2019 | oxfamadmin
#Nepal Earthquake: “The death toll has crossed 2000 and this is just the beginning”
Jan 9, 2020 | oxfamadmin
#NepalEarthquake: It is going to be a long road to recovery
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Money Matters!
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
All for Education, Education for All
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
When schools continue to exclude, can education reduce caste discrimination in India?
Feb 20, 2020 | oxfamadmin
Ensuring the right to education, forming bonds for life
Oct 1, 2019 | oxfamadmin
How can India send a spaceship to Mars but not educate its children?
Sep 30, 2019 | oxfamadmin
India wins in cricket, but losing out on education
Sep 30, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Oxfam's 'Even it up' report a must read lesson on Inequality
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
It’s time to understand ‘womanhood is beyond maternity’
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
The True Measure of Land's Value
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
The “Ten-thousand Committee”: Reviving VHSNCs in Jharkhand
Oct 1, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Singing their way out of child marriage
Sep 10, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Land Acquisition bill tests government’s pro-poor stance
Oct 1, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Breaking the silence, standing tall
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Making a Song and Dance about Child Marriage
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Let’s Talk About Sex
Sep 10, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Mobile technology solutions could be a game changer for maternal health: Scribes
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Missing Girls: The Puzzling Domestic Violence Agenda
Oct 3, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Her Ghar: A right to residence for every woman
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Considering Gender: A Mediaperson’s Guide to Covering Disasters
Dec 16, 2019 | oxfamadmin
True Grit
Apr 5, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Violence against women and star power: Does their magic wand work?
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Having Those Difficult Conversations
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Day of the Man: guarding the china shop
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Gender parity needs to begin at home with mother’s guardianship rights!
Sep 9, 2019 | oxfamadmin
It’s a Girl!
Oct 1, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Let’s Help End Domestic Violence!
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
A Few Good Men
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Promises to keep—Implementation of PWDV Act in Odisha
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Make 16 Days of Activism an Everyday Practice
Oct 30, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Witch-Hunting: A less talked about form of Violence Against Women
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Markets Also Discriminate
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Let’s Talk About Domestic Violence!
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Getting Serious about Ending Violence against Women and Girls
Oct 3, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Right to a Violence Free Life
Sep 10, 2019 | oxfamadmin
It’s all about the money
Sep 10, 2019 | oxfamadmin
‘It’s No Longer Funny': The Funding Wars That’ll Dictate Our Future
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Girl, Interrupted
Oct 1, 2019 | oxfamadmin
16 Pictures From Imagining Inequality That WiIl Tell You The Truth #evenitup
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
These 8 Goals Were Set To Develop The World, But 14 Years Since, This Is Where We Stand
Dec 5, 2019 |
A Look At The Year 2029: What Kind Of Legacy Will We Leave Behind For Our Future Generations?
Nov 18, 2019 |
These 8 Goals Were Set To Develop The World, But 14 Years Since, This Is Where We Stand
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
BRICS bank a necessary step, but needs more transparency
Sep 9, 2019 |
Short term memory and Long term needs!
Oct 7, 2019 |
A people’s budget has to go beyond...
Oct 24, 2019 |
National Shame, National Failure
Sep 27, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Oxfam India pledges its support to #BringBackOurGirls
Oct 1, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Closing the Gap on Gender: Is India up for the challenge?
Nov 15, 2019 | oxfamadmin
She tills, she sows, but she does not own
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Take a pause: what do the Uttrakhand floods tell us about India’s development model?
Sep 10, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Saving lives on sharp turning roads
Oct 1, 2019 | oxfamadmin
They do mind the gap
Oct 7, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Right to Education, still a long way to go.
Oct 1, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Can We Close the Gap on Women's Inequality in India?
Oct 30, 2019 | oxfamadmin
Breaking Old Barriers and Building New Alliances for Food Justice in India and Globally
Oct 24, 2019 | oxfamadmin
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